Investment Letters
In-depth written commentary on the economy, portfolio strategy, and the investment themes shaping our thinking is available to download as PDFs.
Our 2025 letters explore the intersection of artificial intelligence and market structure, the policy implications of a new presidential administration, and the evolving role of fixed income in a post-rate-hike environment. From DeepSeek's surprise debut to AI's growing footprint in corporate earnings, these letters reflect our thinking on the forces shaping portfolios today.
2024 was defined by a resilient economy, a pivotal presidential election, and artificial intelligence moving from theme to earnings driver. Our letters from this year cover Big Tech capex, the Jevons Paradox applied to energy and AI, valuation discipline in a momentum-driven market, and what the election results mean for investors going forward.
2023 marked the early innings of the AI investment cycle, with ChatGPT's launch in late 2022 setting the stage for a year of rapid re-rating in technology stocks. Our letters from this period explore binary market outcomes, the banking stress of March 2023, and how to stay on course when short-term noise pulls investors off their strategy.
2022 was one of the most challenging years for balanced portfolios in decades. The Federal Reserve raised rates at the fastest pace since the 1980s, and both stocks and bonds fell simultaneously — exposing the limits of traditional diversification. Our letters from this year address inflation, the myth of safe assets, and how to think about portfolio construction when correlations break down.
Our 2021 letters reflect on a market recovering from the pandemic shock — and the new concentration risks that came with it. We examine the growing dominance of a handful of mega-cap stocks within the S&P 500, and make the case for informed contrarianism as valuations stretched and consensus thinking became crowded.
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